Voting Behavior

JOP — 2026-09-14 Original What's in a name? Name recognition, place-based identities, and candidate success Arndt Leininger, Tilko Swalve Abstract （原文未提供摘要） 中文 名字里有什么？姓名认知、地方性身份与候选人成功 Arndt Leininger, Tilko Swalve

APSR — pp. 1-18 2026-09-01 Original Are Voters Myopic or Looking for Improvement? MARKUS PRIOR, TALBOT M. ANDREWS Abstract Abstract Timing of valence outcomes plays an important role in key theories of electoral choice, and different models place different emphases on past and future outcomes. Whereas sanctioning models consider only retrospective evaluations as an accountability mechanism, selection models hold that voters use past and proposed future conditions to infer the incumbent’s ability to deliver benefits. Drawing on four surveys run on six different samples, we demonstrate that voters prefer improving conditions in both retrospection and prospection. In retrospection, this pattern is difficult to distinguish from overweighting of temporally proximate conditions, which gave rise to the notion of “the myopic voter.” Distinguishing the two processes, we find that people do not ignore early datapoints and reward improving conditions (in both retrospection and prospection). This preference for improvement does not simply reflect an uncritical heuristic for upward trends. People are not universally myopic and many genuinely value improving aggregate conditions retrospectively and prospectively.

JOP — 2026-07-17 Original Media, Electoral Accountability, and Partisan Polarization Daniel J. Moskowitz Abstract （原文未提供摘要） 中文 媒体、选举问责与党派极化 Daniel J. Moskowitz 摘要 原文未提供摘要 关键词 媒体、选举问责、党派极化、政治极化、选民行为、政党认同 DOI: 10.1086/743211 查看原文 →

JCC — pp. 1-16 2026-07-17 Original China’s UN Diplomacy on the Russo-Ukrainian War Vita Golod, Nataliia Mudrenko Abstract This article examines how China conducts its diplomacy on Ukraine within the United Nations framework and assesses whether its stated principles align with its actual behavior. Using corpus linguistics, discourse analysis, and UN voting data from 2014 to 2025 across the United Nation Security Council (UNSC), General Assembly (UNGA), and selected UN technical bodies, it analyzes the relationship between China’s words and its deeds. A comparison with the Palestine/Gaza corpus shows that China applies more attribution and selective framing, challenging the notion of a uniform ‘principled neutrality’. The findings show that China’s abstention doctrine is conditional, and that its UN behavior reflects strategic differentiation across political and technical arenas of global governance.

WP 78/3 pp. 459-508 2026-07-01 Original The Myth of the Traditional Gender Gap? Evidence from Catholic Countries Evelyne Brie, Dawn Langan Teele Abstract abstract: In rich democracies today, women are less conservative than men. Yet for most of the twentieth century, politicians, pundits, and scholars believed that family life and religiosity tied women to conservative causes and parties. Recent scholarship has reexamined this traditional gender gap hypothesis but has done so in cases in which electorate-wide shifts to the left make it least likely that a conservative gender gap would emerge. This article scrutinizes a hard case, Quebec, a Catholic province in Canada that experienced a dramatic shift to the right after suffrage. Using Gallup polls and ecological inference techniques, the authors show that political geography drove gender preference gaps, with rural women voting more conservatively, and urban women more liberally, than men. In two other Catholic contexts, Austria and Argentina, they show that after suffrage women were not more conservative than men in general, undermining the traditional gender gap thesis in several crucial cases.

JOP — 2026-06-08 Original Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth: Evidence from Polling Effects around Electoral Thresholds Werner Krause, Christina Gahn Abstract （原文未提供摘要） 中文 投票站中的自我实现预言：来自选举门槛附近民调效应的证据 Werner Krause, Christina Gahn

APSR — pp. 1-19 2026-04-06 Original Coethnics Covote in Africa: Studying Electoral Cleavages with a Covoting Regression Model CARL MÜLLER-CREPON, NILS-CHRISTIAN BORMANN