Extreme Weather

JOP 88/3 pp. 1186-1201 2026-07-01 Original The Hidden Universe of Operationalizing Natural Experiments: Navigating Extreme Weather Franziska Quoß, Lukas Rudolph Abstract Natural or quasi-experimental research designs are based on exogenous variation, oftentimes requiring operationalization before use in statistical tests. For this, researchers regularly lack clear theoretical guidance and need to make threshold decisions. We show for three types of shocks—extreme weather, immigration exposure, and commodity price changes—that this leads to a vast menu of equally plausible measurements, which are used unsystematically in ensuing literatures. This hidden universe of operationalization decisions has consequences: Drawing on geocoded survey and weather panel data for Switzerland, we show that different measurements of extreme weather exposure exhibit vast statistical and geographical variation. Importantly, researchers can support arbitrary conclusions when using singular operationalizations, while, in our case, the whole set indicates robust null effects. These results highlight that measurement decisions induce relevant researcher degrees of freedom rarely made transparent. We consequently discuss how current practice could improve, concluding with a template and recommendations.

PAR — 2026-04-24 Original Contracting Services for Response to Extreme Weather Events in Public Organizations Tipeng Chen, Eric W. Welch Abstract ABSTRACT Public organizations facing emergencies often coordinate with other local public and non‐profit organizations for assistance. Yet we know little about the contractual relationships public organizations build with external organizations for emergency responses. Drawing from organizational theories, we explore organizational factors behind public organization decisions to contract for responses to extreme weather events. Using agency‐level data merged from three national sources, we find an inverted U‐shaped relationship between organizational uncertainty about extreme weather events and contracting for immediate emergency responses: contracting is most likely at a moderate level of uncertainty and least likely at a very high level. Greater reliance on contracting for daily services is associated with increased contracting for long‐term emergency planning, while receipt of dedicated financial resources is associated with increased contracting for both immediate emergency responses and long‐term emergency planning. We connect findings with the contracting and emergency management literatures and discuss implications for practice.