Arms Deals

JOP 88/2 pp. 772-786 2026-04-01 Original Arms and Elections: Arms Deals with Autocracies, Defense Contracting, and US Presidential Elections Joshua Alley Abstract The United States makes more arms deals with autocracies during election years. US leaders sell arms to autocrats to bolster their electoral prospects by claiming credit for providing jobs and increasing defense contracting. Autocratic arms recipients have the political flexibility to order arms around elections and increase their security by taking arms. Three major pieces of evidence support this argument. First, I detail electoral cycles in arms deals between the United States and autocracies. I then show that arms deals increase defense contract awards in swing states. Finally, I unpack the process by showing how deal timing shifts after regime change, that US allies drive most of the autocratic arms deals cycle, and that the same platforms that move in arms deals increase swing state contracts. The argument and results detail an electoral motivation of US security cooperation with autocrats.