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研究方法

Open-Ended Survey Responses and Political Conceptualizations in a Polarized Era

·112 字·1 分钟
Polihot 政治行为 研究方法 Open-Ended Survey Questions Political Concepts Polarization Survey Methodology Public Opinion
JOP — 2026-07-17 Original Open-Ended Survey Responses and Political Conceptualizations in a Polarized Era Maxwell Allamong, Benjamin Beutel, Jongwoo Jeong, Paul Kellstedt Abstract （原文未提供摘要） 中文 极化时代的开放式调查回答与政治概念化

The Hidden Universe of Operationalizing Natural Experiments: Navigating Extreme Weather

·584 字·2 分钟
Polihot 研究方法 Natural Experiments Operationalization Extreme Weather Researcher Degrees of Freedom Measurement
JOP 88/3 pp. 1186-1201 2026-07-01 Original The Hidden Universe of Operationalizing Natural Experiments: Navigating Extreme Weather Franziska Quoß, Lukas Rudolph Abstract Natural or quasi-experimental research designs are based on exogenous variation, oftentimes requiring operationalization before use in statistical tests. For this, researchers regularly lack clear theoretical guidance and need to make threshold decisions. We show for three types of shocks—extreme weather, immigration exposure, and commodity price changes—that this leads to a vast menu of equally plausible measurements, which are used unsystematically in ensuing literatures. This hidden universe of operationalization decisions has consequences: Drawing on geocoded survey and weather panel data for Switzerland, we show that different measurements of extreme weather exposure exhibit vast statistical and geographical variation. Importantly, researchers can support arbitrary conclusions when using singular operationalizations, while, in our case, the whole set indicates robust null effects. These results highlight that measurement decisions induce relevant researcher degrees of freedom rarely made transparent. We consequently discuss how current practice could improve, concluding with a template and recommendations.

The Answer Was There All Along: Worry About the Dynamics!

·584 字·2 分钟
Polihot 研究方法 Time-Series Spurious-Regression Unit-Roots ARDL Methodology
JOP 88/3 pp. 1216-1230 2026-07-01 Original The Answer Was There All Along: Worry About the Dynamics! Ali Kagalwala, Guy D. Whitten Abstract In an influential article in 1974, Clive Granger and Paul Newbold demonstrated that regressions with variables that have unit roots often lead to spurious inferences. However, researchers have overlooked the fact that Granger and Newbold’s results were from a static time series model plagued with residual autocorrelation. We demonstrate, analytically and through simulations, that, under most circumstances, adding lags of both the outcome and predictor(s) can account for serial correlation and avoid spurious inferences. We thus recommend the use of a general modeling strategy, an autoregressive distributed lag model with multiple lags of the outcome and predictor(s), as one possible alternative of model choice that is less likely than other commonly used models to reach incorrect conclusions about true effects. Furthermore, our recommended approach performs well relative to the Webb, Linn, and Lebo bounds approach, the latest in a series of techniques designed to avoid the problematic nature of unit root testing.

A Model of Party Effects on Legislative Behavior Based on Roll Call Data

·107 字·1 分钟
Polihot 美国政治 研究方法 Party Effects Legislative Behavior Roll Call Data Formal Model Legislative Politics
JOP 88/3 pp. 1098-1114 2026-07-01 Original A Model of Party Effects on Legislative Behavior Based on Roll Call Data Fang-Yi Chiou, Guillermo Rosas Abstract （原文未提供摘要） 中文 基于唱名表决数据的政党对立法行为影响的一个模型 Fang-Yi Chiou, Guillermo Rosas