比较政治

JOP 88/3 pp. 1027-1047 2026-07-01 Original The Church as Arbiter: A Divided Right in Interwar France Carles Boix, Jean Lacroix Abstract To document the impact of elites’ choices on political movements, we leverage the condemnation of L’Action Française (AF), a monarchist movement, by Pope Pius XI in 1926. As a consequence of the papal condemnation, French Catholics had to choose between their involvement in AF and accessing Catholic sacraments. Difference-in-differences estimates show that the papal condemnation reshaped AF’s territorial distribution and social basis, weakening its support in religious areas while attracting more secularized followers. Following that shift, AF mutated from being a conservative nationalist movement with strong Catholic connections to an extreme organization entangled with a violent and anti-parliamentarian right. Our examination of the role of elites in the development of political movements allows us to shed new light on the dynamics that resulted in the collapse of democracy in interwar Europe.

AJPS — 2026-07-01 Original State surveillance and collective dissent Gaétan Nandong Abstract Abstract State surveillance facilitates the collection of intelligence on dissidents while simultaneously providing information about the value of the status quo. I study this trade‐off in a context where an uninformed government must decide whether to repress. Because citizens expect more informed governments to enact greater repression, autocratic surveillance can create a climate of fear. However, surveillance can also stimulate dissent when citizens have access to public information. State surveillance gives citizens an opportunity to coordinate, even in the absence of a preference for such coordination. Surveillance can amplify dissent by enhancing citizens' motivations for political activism aimed at drawing the government's attention to political and economic issues. Coordination distorts government learning, resulting in lower expected levels of repression. The analysis further indicates that the effectiveness of advanced surveillance technology depends on expectations regarding repression, thereby underscoring a psychological aspect of state control.

WP 78/3 pp. 602-641 2026-07-01 Original South-South Immigration and Redistribution Preferences: Evidence from Colombia Josep Serrano-Serrat, Ignacio Jurado Abstract abstract: Research on the effects of immigration on redistribution preferences mostly focuses on Western countries and neglects the Global South. The authors argue that immigration shocks may have different effects in South-South migration than they do in South-North contexts. On one hand, the effects should be more muted in the former due to minimal cultural differences and limited development of the welfare state. On the other hand, the impact might be larger due to high economic inequality and scarce resources. To investigate these differences, the authors follow a two-fold strategy. First, they exploit the 2015 Venezuelan immigration shock in Colombia using a difference-in-differences strategy, complemented by an instrumental variable. The authors find null-to-positive effects. Second, a survey experiment reveals that priming citizens on immigration has positive effects on citizens’ social spending preferences. The authors attribute this effect to deservingness considerations. These results challenge some prevailing theories and sug-gest that increased immigration does not necessarily reduce redistribution preferences in South-South contexts.

JOP 88/3 pp. 1162-1174 2026-07-01 Original Professorial Silence: Academic Freedom, Domination, and Self-Censorship in Contemporary Russia Evgeny Roshchin Abstract （原文未提供摘要） 中文 教授沉默：当代俄罗斯的学术自由、支配与自我审查 Evgeny Roshchin 摘要 原文未提供摘要 关键词 学术自由、支配、自我审查、俄罗斯、教授沉默 DOI: 10.1086/736025 查看原文 →

WP 78/3 pp. 509-554 2026-07-01 Original Peasants and Parliaments: Institutional Foundations of Agrarian Reform in Eighteenth-Century Eastern Europe Brendan McElroy Abstract abstract: An influential literature attributes Europe’s economic precocity to what might be termed “good” institutions, such as representative assemblies, which shielded property from governmental predation. This account fails to contend with the diversity of property rights in preindustrial Europe, many of which, like serfdom, were obstacles to growth. The author proposes a role for some—but not all—early representative assemblies in fostering growth by eliminating these “bad” property rights. An assembly’s capacity to extinguish property rights is a product of its decision-making efficiency, which in turn is associated with majority voting and centralized agenda control. The author tests these claims through a controlled comparison of progrowth agrarian reforms in the Russian Baltic province of Livonia and the Danish-ruled duchies of Schleswig and Holstein between 1795 and 1805, finding that the Livonian diet’s efficient organization was key to the successful transformation of serfdom. This analysis suggests that we must evaluate preindustrial representative institutions on the basis of their capacity to orchestrate complex exchanges of property rights and rents.

JOP 88/3 pp. 1011-1026 2026-07-01 Original Immigration, Public Housing, and Support for the French National Front Gloria Gennaro Abstract In Europe, urban peripheries that host public housing estates are often inhab-ited by a diverse population, including many migrants. In those places, far-rightparties enjoy growing electoral support. This paper asks: Can expansionary publichousing policies boost the electoral support of far-right parties in diverse communi-ties? I exploit the staggered roll-out of a French public housing policy to show thatresidents of municipalities with large pre-policy immigration shares vote more forthe National Front in response to public housing expansion. The opposite happensin municipalities with low pre-policy exposure to immigration. The paper investi-gates three potential mechanisms: compositional changes, material grievances, andlatent group conflict. Separate empirical analyses of sociodemographic, housing,and newspaper data suggest that the third mechanism may drive the results. Thepaper further discusses the theoretical and practical implications of these findingsfor understanding the challenges of adapting the welfare state to increasingly diversesocieties.

JOP 88/3 pp. 1264-1269 2026-07-01 Original How Group Appeals Shape Group–Party Linkages in Two Political Systems

JOP 88/3 pp. 1270-1274 2026-07-01 Original Gendered Targeting: Do Parties Tailor Their Campaign Ads to Women? Cornelius Erfort Abstract （原文未提供摘要） 中文 性别化定向：政党会为女性量身定制竞选广告吗？ Cornelius Erfort 摘要 原文未提供摘要 关键词 性别、竞选广告、政党定向、女性选民、政治传播 DOI: 10.1086/736027 查看原文 →

JOP 88/3 pp. 1275-1280 2026-07-01 Original Door-to-Door Campaigning in an Electoral Autocracy: Evidence from Hungary Gábor Simonovits, Ferenc Szucs, Bence Hamrak Abstract To what extent can opposition parties in hybrid regimes persuade voters? Although door-to-door campaigning is a frequently used technique by parties, we lack scholarly evidence on their effectiveness in mobilizing voters—especially in nondemocratic contexts. In electoral autocracies, on-the-ground campaigns might prove especially important due to the inequality between parties’ media access and resources. In this study, we estimate the impact of a Hungarian opposition party’s canvassing efforts for the 2019 European Parliament election relying on granular data and precise information about how party activists were allocated to geographical units. We find that the party’s campaign led to a roughly 1-percentage-point (about 15% of the standard deviation) increase compared to its previous vote share. At the same time, we also demonstrate that the campaign seemed to hurt other opposition parties instead of the governing party, highlighting the possible challenges that opposition parties face in electoral autocracies.

WP 78/3 pp. 555-601 2026-07-01 Original Democratizing from Within: British Elites and the Expansion of the Franchise Chitralekha Basu, Carles Boix, Sonia Giurumescu, Paulo Serôdio