比较政治

WP 78/2 pp. 207-250 2026-04-01 Original Reshuffles or Dismissals? The Logic of Elite Management and Autocratic Survival Alexander Baturo, Roman-Gabriel Olar Abstract abstract: Co-optation and repression are central to understanding authoritarian power sharing, but how autocrats implement these strategies with individual elites remains underexplored. The article proposes a theoretical framework conceptualizing dictators as managers of their ruling coalitions who routinely appoint, dismiss, promote, demote, shuffle, or reappoint elites for a mixture of strategic, nonstrategic, or even mundane reasons. The authors argue that autocrats have agency in choosing between dismissals and reshuffles as general elite management strategies. In the process, they alter the information environment and elite incentives with consequences for their own survival. Although dismissals as a general policy reduce elites' power, they also increase intraregime conflict and uncertainty and tend to have adverse effects on ruler survival. In contrast, reshuffles prevent elite coordination but ensure that elites have a stake in regime continuity. These arguments are tested using novel measures of dismissals and reshuffles in autocratic regimes and communist politburos while also considering the mechanisms and alternative explanations driving the results. The findings suggest that autocratic survival relies more on mundane and nonviolent elite management than seen in the predominantly conflictual accounts of authoritarian politics.

JOP 88/2 pp. 666-680 2026-04-01 Original Military Power and Ideological Appeals of Religious Extremists Luwei Ying Abstract The proliferation of terrorist propaganda threatens societies worldwide. Yet, we know little about violent extremists’ strategy in disseminating their ideologies. This article studies the ideological appeals of jihadi groups, among the most prominent contemporary conflict movements, and shows how these groups navigate between religious and secular narratives in response to the fluctuations in their military power. Weaker groups must prioritize their core believers and foreground a more radical religious ideal, while stronger groups seek broader support from more moderate individuals and thus pitch themselves more secularly. I illustrate this dynamic with an original database of 87 magazines published regularly by 35 jihadi groups from 1984 to 2019. Furthermore, I leverage approximately six million tweets from 21,000 ISIS-related accounts in 2015 to examine the jihadists’ mobilization efforts regarding different audiences. Overall, I demonstrate that violent groups put more emphasis on their ideological brand when they are militarily weaker.

WP 78/2 pp. 251-292 2026-04-01 Original Making or Breaking Citizens? Criminal Organizations and State-Society Relations Kaitlyn Chriswell Abstract abstract: When do groups of citizens organize to resist criminal group presence, and what form does their resistance take? Criminal groups operate across the globe, imposing a variety of costs on local communities. Confronted with these conditions, citizens can either accommodate or contest; when they contest, they choose either to engage or to avoid the state. This article leverages variation in three municipalities across Mexico to illustrate how and why communities react differently to the presence of criminal organizations. While the degree of criminal competition and the strength of preexisting civil society drive whether groups of citizens contest, the degree of local state autonomy from criminal groups shapes the form—state centered or nonstate—that contestation takes. Organized crime is broadly considered an impediment to functioning democracy, but this article demonstrates that its presence can also push citizens in some cases to organize and engage with the state in ways that bolster democracy.

JOP 88/2 pp. 572-585 2026-04-01 Original Intraparty Competition, Geographic Responsiveness, and Incumbent Deselection in Closed-List Proportional Representation Jochen Rehmert Abstract Closed-list proportional representation is considered to produce politicians engaged in programmatic, party-oriented behavior. Personal vote-seeking and geographic responsiveness, however, are attributed to open-list or plurality systems. In this article, I argue that the focus on interparty competition masks incentives for geographic responsiveness generated by intraparty competition for nominations. Specifically, parties’ candidate selection methods that rely on locally minded delegates introduce incentives for incumbents to engage in localized responsiveness. Using survey experiments with party delegates in Germany and an original and novel dataset based on (historical) nomination protocols of the German Green party in combination with geo-referenced legislative behavior, I show that geographically responsive incumbents are preferred by delegates in survey experiments, rewarded with higher ranks and vote margins in the observational data, and that this is mainly limited to men who face greater competition. My findings shed new light on the interplay of electoral and selectoral incentives for behavior.

JOP 88/2 pp. 647-665 2026-04-01 Original How Exiles Mobilize Domestic Dissent Elizabeth R. Nugent, Alexandra A. Siegel Abstract How can exiles mobilize dissent back home? We argue that internet communication technologies enable exiles to play an instigator role in domestic contentious politics. Analyzing the behavior of three types of social media users—influencers, amplifiers, and consumers—we explore how Egyptian exiles participated in a cascade of online dissent that culminated in sizable anti-regime protests in September 2019. Analyses of large-scale digital trace data from Facebook, Google, Twitter, and YouTube demonstrate that exiles were central to the introduction and amplification of oppositional content, facilitating its circulation among a domestic audience that then localized the content by linking it with place-based calls for protest. Our findings suggest that content produced and amplified by exiles facilitates coordination among domestic opposition and challenges the supporting role typically ascribed to opposition abroad.

JOP — 2026-04-01 Original Does Youth Representation Matter for Social Spending? Charles T. McClean Abstract （原文未提供摘要） 中文 青年代表性对社会支出重要吗？ Charles T. McClean 摘要 原文未提供摘要 关键词 青年代表性、社会支出、描述性代表、福利国家、代际政治、公共政策 DOI: 10.1086/741605 查看原文 →

JOP 88/2 pp. 586-600 2026-04-01 Original Do Politicians Listen to Youth Wings? Evidence from an Elite Experiment Henrik Bech Seeberg Abstract Most political parties have youth wings. They are major recruitment and campaign vehicles for parties, but do politicians listen to them when it comes to policy positions? Short of research, I provide a first answer to this question via a large-scale survey experiment of politicians across a range of issues. I show that politicians listen to their youth wings not because of who the youth wings are but because of what they say. The politicians do not adjust because the argument comes from the youth wing but because the youth wing takes a more ideologically pure and, therefore, radical stance than the mother party or refer to their expertise on the issue. These results apply particularly to politicians who applaud the youth wings’ policies in general and politicians who are electorally vulnerable. This has important implications for research on political representation and our understanding of preference aggregation in political parties.

JOP 88/2 pp. 479-492 2026-04-01 Original Cycles of Silence: Police–Citizen Cooperation in Communities with Criminal Groups

JOP 88/2 pp. 465-478 2026-04-01 Original Commodity Booms, Conflict, and Organized Crime: Logics of Violence in Indonesia’s Oil Palm Plantation Economy

JOP — 2026-04-01 Original Against the Wind: The Radical Right, Renewable Energy, and the Politics of the Green Transition Pauliina Patana, Held Alexander Abstract （原文未提供摘要） 中文 逆风而行：激进右翼、可再生能源与绿色转型政治