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政治行为

Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth: Evidence from Polling Effects around Electoral Thresholds

·110 字·1 分钟
Polihot 政治行为 比较政治 Polling Effects Electoral Thresholds Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Voting Behavior Strategic Voting
JOP — 2026-06-08 Original Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth: Evidence from Polling Effects around Electoral Thresholds Werner Krause, Christina Gahn Abstract （原文未提供摘要） 中文 投票站中的自我实现预言：来自选举门槛附近民调效应的证据 Werner Krause, Christina Gahn

Negativity trumps source: exploring the perceptions of AI-advice among public officials

·379 字·1 分钟
Polihot 公共行政 政治行为 AI Advice Negativity Bias Motivated Reasoning Survey Experiment Public Officials
PMR — pp. 1-28 2026-06-07 Original Negativity trumps source: exploring the perceptions of AI-advice among public officials Yuyan Cao, Xin Liang Abstract The advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) may renew our understanding of evidence-based policymaking. Grounded in motivated reasoning and negativity bias literature, this study adopts a 2 × 2 survey experiment to explore how advice source and valence affect public officials’ trust and policy preference. Findings demonstrate that advice containing negative result exerts disproportionate influence. Moreover, when advice aligns with public officials’ prior policy beliefs, negativity bias amplifies their preference. These findings highlight how cognitive biases impede the public officials’ interpretation to policy advice.

How the Chinese Public Perceives South-East Asia: Affinity, Annoyance and Apprehension

·577 字·2 分钟
Polihot 政治行为 国际关系 中国研究 China Public Opinion Southeast Asia Survey Geopolitics
CQ 266 pp. 491-505 2026-05-29 Original How the Chinese Public Perceives South-East Asia: Affinity, Annoyance and Apprehension Enze Han Abstract Abstract This article explores how the Chinese public perceives South-East Asia. Using original survey data collected in China, it suggests three perceptual frames. The “affinity” frame, which is rooted in historical Chinese migration and diaspora ties, generates feelings of kinship and cultural connection. Conversely, the “annoyance” frame stems from contemporary geopolitical tensions, particularly South China Sea disputes, where several South-East Asian countries are viewed as provocateurs challenging China’s regional authority. The “apprehension” frame characterizes the region as exotic yet dangerous, a perception reinforced by recent cyber scams and criminal activities targeting Chinese citizens, creating stereotypes of South-East Asia as lawless and unsafe. The article analyses the survey data for the statistical distribution of these frames and discusses their political implications. By exploring how historical ties, geopolitical tensions and security concerns simultaneously shape Chinese public opinion, the article illuminates the complex perceptual landscape that may influence China’s diplomatic and economic relations with South-East Asia.