安全研究

JOP — 2026-04-29 Original Shattered Pathways: Women’s Access to Interior Ministries in the Wake of Terrorism Tiffany D. Barnes, Bomi Lee, Diana Z. O'Brien

JCC — pp. 1-15 2026-04-21 Original China Plans for ‘Total War’: Developing the Capacity to Defeat the ‘Strong Enemy’ of the United States

JOP — 2026-04-20 Original The Point of Attack: Where and Why Does Oil Cause Armed Conflict in Africa? Graeme Blair, Darin Christensen, Michael Gibilisco

JCC — pp. 1-16 2026-04-08 Original China’s Quasi-Mediation Diplomacy in the Middle East in the 21st Century Mordechai Chaziza Abstract This study examines China’s quasi-mediation diplomacy in the Middle East as a limited form of conflict management. Rather than viewing mediation as dispute resolution, quasi-mediation is framed as a strategy for China to engage regionally while minimizing political and reputational risk. Through cases such as the 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement and China’s involvement in the Israel-Palestine conflict, the article argues that quasi-mediation allows China to signal responsible power, manage regional instability, and expand its diplomatic visibility, without taking on coercive leverage or implementation. The analysis reveals that China’s efforts are more about reputational signaling and risk management than conflict resolution. Ultimately, quasi-mediation reflects China’s global ambitions and the constraints of its non-interference policy in a multipolar world.

JOP 88/2 pp. 839-853 2026-04-01 Original Observable Bounds of Rationality and Credibility in International Relations Andrew Kenealy, Trent Ollerenshaw, So Jin Lee Abstract In crisis bargaining scenarios, resolved states send costly signals to demonstrate a willingness to fight. Yet, public signals of resolve are issued by specific leaders, who operate with cognitive limitations in challenging decision environments. Drawing upon theories of behavioral economics, we develop a series of observable indicators plausibly connected to leader ability and difficulty of decision environment that we expect shape perceived signaler credibility. Effects, we argue, are due to perceived variation in the signaler’s uncertainty over the future costs at stake. We find that almost all indicators shape threat credibility and find suggestive support for the proposed mechanism. By bridging behavioral economics and foundational scholarship on costly signaling in international relations (IR) in novel ways, this registered report shows how individual and environmental decision restrictions set the bounds of observable leader rationality and, in turn, shape credibility in IR.

JOP 88/2 pp. 666-680 2026-04-01 Original Military Power and Ideological Appeals of Religious Extremists Luwei Ying Abstract The proliferation of terrorist propaganda threatens societies worldwide. Yet, we know little about violent extremists’ strategy in disseminating their ideologies. This article studies the ideological appeals of jihadi groups, among the most prominent contemporary conflict movements, and shows how these groups navigate between religious and secular narratives in response to the fluctuations in their military power. Weaker groups must prioritize their core believers and foreground a more radical religious ideal, while stronger groups seek broader support from more moderate individuals and thus pitch themselves more secularly. I illustrate this dynamic with an original database of 87 magazines published regularly by 35 jihadi groups from 1984 to 2019. Furthermore, I leverage approximately six million tweets from 21,000 ISIS-related accounts in 2015 to examine the jihadists’ mobilization efforts regarding different audiences. Overall, I demonstrate that violent groups put more emphasis on their ideological brand when they are militarily weaker.

APSR — pp. 1-29 2026-03-24 Original Elite Partisan Disagreement and Military Victory: Evidence from South Korean Battle Experiments MICHAEL F. JOSEPH, JOON H. CHUNG, HUI SEONG PARK

JOP — 2026-03-13 Original Rethinking Reputation: When Fighting to Demonstrate Resolve Backfires Joshua A. Schwartz Abstract （原文未提供摘要） 中文 重新审视声誉：当为展示决心而成的斗争反噬自身 Joshua A. Schwartz 摘要 原文未提供摘要 关键词 声誉、决心、危机谈判、威慑、观众成本 DOI: 10.1086/741344 查看原文 →