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安全研究

Embeddedness Under Fire: How Chinese Private Firms Navigate Conflict Risks in Northern Myanmar

·534 字·2 分钟
Polihot 政治经济学 安全研究 中国研究 China Myanmar Private Firms Conflict Risk Embeddedness
JCC — pp. 1-17 2026-08-27 Original Embeddedness Under Fire: How Chinese Private Firms Navigate Conflict Risks in Northern Myanmar Yaolong Xian Abstract As one of Myanmar’s largest sources of foreign investment, China has been exposed to the civil war that intensified after the 2021 coup. Drawing on a mixed embeddedness perspective and interview-based fieldwork, this article examines how Chinese private firms operate in Myanmar’s conflict-affected regions without formal state protection or legal guarantees. It argues that their resilience rests on embedding commercial activity within fragmented governance. Institutionally, firms align with non-state armed authorities, adapt across shifting jurisdictions, and benefit from protective norms tied to Chinese identity. Socially, they mobilize ethnic and kinship ties, intermediaries, and localized information networks. These mechanisms, though costly and imperfect, convert unstable environments into workable orders. The article contributes to Global China scholarship by foregrounding private enterprises as adaptive actors in conflict settings.

The market for human smuggling: Structure, mechanisms, and paradoxes

·691 字·2 分钟
Polihot 安全研究 政治经济学 Human Smuggling Migrant Smuggling Criminal Networks Border Enforcement Market Structure
PNAS 123/33 pp. e2511019122-e2511019122 2026-08-10 Original The market for human smuggling: Structure, mechanisms, and paradoxes Paolo Campana Abstract Human smuggling is the facilitation of unlawful cross-border movement. It is primarily a commercial activity, offered as a service to willing, paying customers, and a large-scale market catering to millions seeking to circumvent mobility restrictions. Contrary to prevailing media and political narratives that depict smuggling as dominated by powerful and highly sophisticated criminal organizations, this study documents a fragmented, decentralized market composed of independent, localized actors operating through flexible, often temporary networks. These flexible arrangements, coupled with low barriers to entry, confer resilience and adaptability to the market, making enforcement difficult and resource-intensive. Intensified enforcement often produces unintended consequences, including heightened migrant vulnerability and increased reliance on smugglers. Despite regional differences, smuggling operations exhibit striking structural similarities shaped by local knowledge and monitoring costs. Such enduring structural characteristics exist alongside a growing role played by communication technologies, which are reshaping dynamics between service providers and customers. Ultimately, human smuggling remains a market fraught with paradoxes: Migrants face severe risks yet view smugglers as essential facilitators, while states confront the complex task of balancing border enforcement with humanitarian obligations and protections of vulnerable individuals.

Rebel Victory and Authoritarian (Dis)Order

·522 字·2 分钟
Polihot 比较政治 安全研究 Authoritarian Durability Rebellion Civil War Power-Sharing Regime Survival
APSR — pp. 1-21 2026-07-15 Original Rebel Victory and Authoritarian (Dis)Order KILLIAN CLARKE, ANNE MENG, JACK PAINE Abstract Many authoritarian regimes originating in violent rebellion are exceptionally durable. Yet others collapse quickly after their birth. We argue that the structure of the founding rebellion explains these divergent trajectories by shaping power-sharing dynamics in the new regime and the nature of conflict recurrence. Regimes founded by unified rebellions (single armed group) usually become highly durable autocracies because their members can credibly share power within the same armed organization. By contrast, regimes founded by fractured rebellions (multiple armed groups) often fail quickly because armed rivals must attempt to share power across their organizations, prompting defections and recurrent rebellions. Empirically, we support these arguments by analyzing originally compiled data on every regime founded by successful rebellion worldwide from 1900 to 2020. Neither alternative rebellion characteristics, like social revolution or leftist ideology, nor country-level factors can explain why rebel regimes follow divergent trajectories.

Managing Exposure: China’s Foreign Policy Adaptation to Overseas Conflict Risks

·497 字·1 分钟
Polihot 国际关系 安全研究 中国研究 China Foreign Policy Overseas Conflict Risk Global Security Initiative Asset Protection
JCC — pp. 1-17 2026-06-28 Original Managing Exposure: China’s Foreign Policy Adaptation to Overseas Conflict Risks Pascal Abb Abstract China’s global economic expansion has resulted in a major foothold in conflict-prone regions. This exposure drives an increasingly active approach to risk mitigation and asset protection, and a gradual shift in Chinese security policy towards more interventionist measures. Yet how these risks are assessed in China, and what role they play in shaping its global security agency, remains understudied. This paper traces Chinese discourses on overseas conflict risk management and resulting policy shifts. It examines how Chinese sources describe the problem, rate risks across distinct environments, and propose measures to improve risk management and asset protection. It argues that outcomes like the Global Security Initiative are best understood as adaptations to these risks, revealing clues about China’s emergence as a global security provider.