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中国研究

Portraits of Power: Facial Appearance and the Tacit Domain of Political Selection in China

APSR — pp. 1-22 2026-06-22 Original Portraits of Power: Facial Appearance and the Tacit Domain of Political Selection in China JUNYAN JIANG, SONGPO YANG Abstract As the epitome of modern, rational organizations, bureaucracies are often believed to select candidates based on rules and reason. We argue that intuitive—and even instinctive—assessments of candidates’ external appearances sometimes underpin seemingly rational and calculated decisions. Using a novel, AI-based algorithm that learns and reproduces human assessments of facial appearances at scale, we examine how perceived facial traits influence the careers of over four thousand mid- and senior-level Chinese officials. We find that officials who look more competent, trustworthy, and less aggressive enjoy significantly better promotion prospects and lower purge risk than their peers. Warmth-related traits (e.g., trustworthiness and non-aggressiveness) are especially valued at higher-level promotions and for male candidates. Additional analyses, including conjoint experiments with real officials, demonstrate that appearances’ influence over selection preferences is comparable to performance or political connections. These findings challenge the prevailing meritocratic and relation-based theories of bureaucratic selection and highlight the role of impressions in the workings of government institutions.

The Safety Tether: How China Manages Civil Society Through Lawfare

GOV 39/3 2026-06-19 Original The Safety Tether: How China Manages Civil Society Through Lawfare Timothy Hildebrandt, Blake Miller Abstract ABSTRACT How do authoritarian regimes benefit from civil society organizations' expertise and capacity while mitigating the potential risks they pose? Using machine learning and interrupted time series modeling of an original custom‐annotated dataset of all historical NGO registrations in China, we find that NGO policy is unevenly implemented. This unevenness, however, is not random. China uses NGO registration policies to facilitate local risk utility tradeoffs in line with threat perceptions and governance needs. This, we argue, is a form of lawfare—using legal means to achieve political or repressive ends. Examining a 2013 policy shift, we find local governments relax sponsorship requirements more in policy domains with low state capacity and less where civil society poses a threat, tailoring national mandates to shape local conditions. We show how lawfare is a complex instrument providing local flexibility in repression and cooptation of civil society, under the guise of routine legal and administrative procedures.

The Cultural Root of Gendered Social Network Segregation in China

CQ — pp. 1-13 2026-06-11 Original The Cultural Root of Gendered Social Network Segregation in China Anning Hu Abstract Abstract This report examines gender differences in trust-based social networks in contemporary China. Using data collected from a uniquely designed survey, respondents rate the trustworthiness of 24 prototypical social roles, enabling our construction of gender-specific networks. Community detection analysis reveals a tripartite structure in men’s networks – older-generation kin, same-generation kin and non-kin – versus a simpler kin/non-kin split among women. Two explanatory pathways are tested: cultural dispositions and life chance access. Matching analyses suggest cultural orientation as the primary driver: when men and women both embrace traditional ideas to the same degree, their network partitioning differences cease to exist. Further analyses suggest that the gender difference in social network partitioning lies in the fact that men are more traditionally oriented than women. This study highlights a gendered cultural configuration in which men appear relatively more “traditional” and women more “modern” as played out through gendered forms of social networking.

Unraveling Bureaucratic Procrastination: Probabilistically Sufficient Factors and Necessary Conditions

PA — 2026-06-04 Original Unraveling Bureaucratic Procrastination: Probabilistically Sufficient Factors and Necessary Conditions Xi Zhang, Bo Yan, Bin Chen, Long Wu, Yao Liu Abstract ABSTRACT When confronted with demanding workloads and limited resources, grassroots bureaucrats may resort to procrastinating on tasks as a coping strategy. This study integrates the Stimulus‐Organism‐Response (SOR) model, the Social Cognitive Theory (SCT), and the Conservation of Resources (COR) theory to unravel the multi‐layered drivers of bureaucratic procrastination. Using survey data from Chinese grassroots bureaucrats, we employed a dual‐logic approach that incorporated the perspectives of both sufficiency and necessity. The results, visualized through Bottleneck Importance‐Performance Map Analysis (BIPMA), reveal a hierarchy for interventions. Organizational identification emerges as the highest priority, functioning as both a potent sufficient factor and a critical necessary condition. Self‐efficacy serves as a moderate obstacle for specific subgroups who require targeted support, while public service motivation acts as a foundational prerequisite that warrants ongoing maintenance rather than active enhancement. Combined with strategies to mitigate emotional exhaustion, these insights can facilitate a more targeted allocation of resources to curtail bureaucratic procrastination. This research advances the study of bureaucratic behavior by providing actionable guidance to mitigate bureaucratic procrastination and also by offering a methodological contribution through the application of dual‐logic analysis to complex organizational phenomena.