中国研究

GOV 39/4 2026-09-04 Original Dead Ends and Policy Change in Chinese Experimental Governance Vincent Brussee Abstract ABSTRACT Not all policy change is expansive, yet non‐expansive trajectories remain underexamined. This article introduces the concept of dead ends: a stage of the policy process in which initiatives cease to develop or be implemented in their existing form, structuring subsequent policy change such as rollback, redirection, or termination. To examine such trajectories, the article combines large‐scale analysis of 27,103 policy experiments announced in the People's Republic of China between 2013 and 2018 with qualitative case studies. The findings suggest that a substantial majority—up to 90%—of experiments reach dead ends. These dead ends are associated with leadership turnover, policy complexity, and misalignment with bureaucratic incentives and socio‐economic conditions. Altogether, the article provides new frameworks for understanding alternative directions of policy change. In doing so, it also sheds new light on the adaptive capacity and structural constraints of China's governance system.

PNAS 123/36 pp. e2530532123-e2530532123 2026-09-03 Original Leveraging generative AI for causal inference with unstructured data Kosuke Imai, Kentaro Nakamura Abstract We introduce GenAI-Powered Inference (GPI), a statistical framework for causal inference using unstructured data, including text and images. GPI leverages open-source pretrained Generative AI (GenAI) models-such as large language models and diffusion models-not only to generate unstructured data at scale but also to extract low-dimensional representations that are guaranteed to capture their underlying structure. Applying machine learning to these representations, GPI enables estimation of causal effects while quantifying estimation uncertainty. Unlike existing approaches to representation learning, GPI does not require fine-tuning of GenAI models, making it computationally efficient and broadly accessible. We illustrate the versatility of the GPI framework through three applications: 1) estimating the effects of Chinese social media censorship while adjusting for textual confounders, 2) isolating the impact of specific image features from that of other correlated features in the same image, and 3) assessing the persuasiveness of political rhetoric. An open-source software package is available for implementing GPI.

CQ — pp. 1-20 2026-09-01 Original The Origins of Land Finance: Local Resistance and Top-Down Imposition Saul Kriger Wilson Abstract Abstract Land sales have been a significant source of revenue for Chinese local governments since the early 2000s. Contrary to popular belief, local governments did not turn to land finance to make up for lost tax revenues after the 1994 tax sharing reform. Rather, both before and after 1994, corrupt land sales were widespread, as officials sold land far below market prices in return for bribes. Even as the fiscal incentives for local governments to adopt land finance increased in the 1990s, state agents continued acting on their own personal interests rather than the institutional interests of local governments. Local governments only began to sell land at higher, market prices when an anti-corruption campaign launched by the central government made doing so a political imperative in the early 2000s. Local governments were much more responsive to political imperatives than to fiscal incentives.

CQ — pp. 1-17 2026-09-01 Original Feminized Revival: Han Chinese Dress, Gender and Cultural Nationalism in Contemporary China Fuyun Wei Abstract Abstract Women hold disproportionate authority in China’s contemporary Hanfu revival, where Han-ness operates through implicit cultural codes rather than explicit ethnic claims. Recent scholarship highlights how Han-ness circulates as a moral, etiquette-centred grammar of “proper culture.” Drawing on 18 months of ethnography across six sites in China, this article shows how gender mediates that grammar and shapes the performances of Han-ness. Women, as arbiters of taste and propriety, enact an assertive banal nationalism through aesthetic and organizational labour. Men, marginal within the field, perform defensive overt nationalism through didactic historical narratives and moralized claims to legitimacy. To explain this pattern of identity formation and boundary making, I advance the notion of gendered everyday nationhood. The article contributes to scholarship on nationalism by showing how embodied practices sustain national belonging, and how mundane evaluation and boundary policing reproduce nationhood in everyday life.

JOP — 2026-08-31 Original On Republican Domination: Weibo as History and Concept Shoufu Yin Abstract （原文未提供摘要） 中文 《论共和主义支配：作为历史与概念的Weibo》 Shoufu Yin 摘要 原文未提供摘要 关键词 共和主义、支配、非支配、概念史、政治思想史 DOI: 10.1086/743912 查看原文 →

GOV 39/4 2026-08-30 Original Social Norms, State Punishment, and Motivation Crowding in Anti‐Corruption Messaging: Experimental Evidence From China

CQ — pp. 1-18 2026-08-28 Original Subversive Amplification: Online Dissent and the Limits of Information Control in China Christian Göbel Abstract Abstract Intensified information control severely constrains digital contention in China, yet online mass events occasionally occur. Using a dataset of 274,721 Weibo messages, this study examines mobilization, coordination and grievance articulation during a two-day episode of online dissent in the aftermath of the 2022 Urumqi residential building fire, which preceded the White Paper protests. It argues that users were activated by public communication failures that transformed manifold grievances into outrage, and that the associated hashtags provided anchors to which criticism could be attached. In a process this study terms “subversive amplification,” concentrated engagement amplified the hashtags’ visibility, and with it the critical content attached to them. However, absent the unifying function of opinion leaders, grievance articulation remained fragmented and did not converge on unified demands. The case illustrates the inherent vulnerabilities of information control but also the conditions and limits of their exploitation.

PSJ 54/3 2026-08-28 Original Conditional Autonomy, Discursive Gatekeeping, and Patterns of Action: How Experts Influence Policy in China's One‐Party System

JCC — pp. 1-17 2026-08-27 Original Forgiving the Government: The Waning Effect of Citizen Grievances in China Jinfeng Wu, Yongshun Cai Abstract Public grievances do not automatically translate into collective or even individual resistance, but pent-up grievances threaten governments because they may trigger regime-challenging actions when opportunities arise. This study examines to what extent public grievances against state authorities may become pent up. Using a longitudinal survey in China, this article finds that public grievances against local state authorities reduce citizens’ trust in the political system, but citizen grievances may not become pent up. Instead, these grievances tend to be individualized in the sense that they neither last for a long time nor diffuse in society. Individualized grievances reduce political pressure because they do not constitute threats to social stability. However, whether these grievances will last if citizens re-encounter similar conflicts warrants further research.

JCC — pp. 1-17 2026-08-27 Original Embeddedness Under Fire: How Chinese Private Firms Navigate Conflict Risks in Northern Myanmar Yaolong Xian Abstract As one of Myanmar’s largest sources of foreign investment, China has been exposed to the civil war that intensified after the 2021 coup. Drawing on a mixed embeddedness perspective and interview-based fieldwork, this article examines how Chinese private firms operate in Myanmar’s conflict-affected regions without formal state protection or legal guarantees. It argues that their resilience rests on embedding commercial activity within fragmented governance. Institutionally, firms align with non-state armed authorities, adapt across shifting jurisdictions, and benefit from protective norms tied to Chinese identity. Socially, they mobilize ethnic and kinship ties, intermediaries, and localized information networks. These mechanisms, though costly and imperfect, convert unstable environments into workable orders. The article contributes to Global China scholarship by foregrounding private enterprises as adaptive actors in conflict settings.