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South-South Immigration and Redistribution Preferences: Evidence from Colombia

WP 78/3 pp. 602-641 2026-07-01

Original

South-South Immigration and Redistribution Preferences: Evidence from Colombia

Josep Serrano-Serrat, Ignacio Jurado

Abstract

abstract: Research on the effects of immigration on redistribution preferences mostly focuses on Western countries and neglects the Global South. The authors argue that immigration shocks may have different effects in South-South migration than they do in South-North contexts. On one hand, the effects should be more muted in the former due to minimal cultural differences and limited development of the welfare state. On the other hand, the impact might be larger due to high economic inequality and scarce resources. To investigate these differences, the authors follow a two-fold strategy. First, they exploit the 2015 Venezuelan immigration shock in Colombia using a difference-in-differences strategy, complemented by an instrumental variable. The authors find null-to-positive effects. Second, a survey experiment reveals that priming citizens on immigration has positive effects on citizens’ social spending preferences. The authors attribute this effect to deservingness considerations. These results challenge some prevailing theories and sug-gest that increased immigration does not necessarily reduce redistribution preferences in South-South contexts.

中文

南南移民与再分配偏好:来自哥伦比亚的证据

Josep Serrano-Serrat, Ignacio Jurado

摘要

关于移民对再分配偏好影响的研究大多聚焦于西方国家,而忽视了全球南方。作者认为,移民冲击在南南移民中可能产生不同于南北情境的影响。一方面,由于文化差异较小且福利国家发展有限,前者中的影响应当更为微弱。另一方面,由于经济不平等程度高且资源稀缺,其影响可能更大。为考察这些差异,作者采用双管齐下的策略。第一,他们利用2015年哥伦比亚境内的委内瑞拉移民冲击,采用双重差分策略,并以工具变量作为补充。作者发现影响为零至正向。第二,一项调查实验表明,对公民进行移民议题的启动会对其社会支出偏好产生正向影响。作者将这一效应归因于应得性考量。这些结果挑战了一些流行理论,并表明在南南情境中,移民增加未必会降低再分配偏好。

关键词

南南移民、再分配偏好、哥伦比亚、委内瑞拉移民、调查实验、双重差分、应得性、社会支出偏好