Original
Rhetorical Diffusion and Policy Latency: Tracing AIPAC Influence in US–Iran Relations (2010–2026)
Abstract
ABSTRACT How do domestic interest groups shape the transition from diplomatic agreements to kinetic warfare? This research article addresses the methodological stagnation in foreign policy analysis by introducing a computational text‐as‐data pipeline to systematically quantify lobbying influence. Analyzing a master corpus of more than 31,000 documents spanning January 2010 through early 2026, we track the diffusion of escalatory rhetoric from the pro‐Israel lobby into the United States government regarding Iran. Drawing on Dynamic Topic Modeling, N‐gram alignment, and periodized Granger causality, the study operationalizes lobbying influence as a measurable information subsidy. The empirical results reveal substantial institutional divergence: while the Executive Branch remains insulated from the lobby's lagged predictive influence, Congress operates as a permeable amplifier of escalatory framing. As geopolitical conditions deteriorate, the lobby emerges as a statistically robust leading indicator—in the Granger sense of temporal precedence—for legislative securitization. By supplying prepackaged, militarized vocabulary used to interpret the crisis, the lobby precedes the legislature in the rhetorical sequence and helps shape a permissive environment for the President's unilateral initiation of the February 2026 regional war. We are careful to distinguish temporal precedence from full structural causation and to discuss the role of concurrent exogenous shocks.
中文
修辞扩散与政策时滞：追踪AIPAC在美伊关系中的影响（2010—2026年）
摘要
摘要 国内利益集团如何塑造从外交协议向动能战争的转变？本研究通过引入一种计算文本作为数据的流程，以系统量化游说影响，从而回应外交政策分析中的方法论停滞。我们分析2010年1月至2026年初的31,000余份文件构成的主语料库，追踪亲以色列游说团体针对伊朗的升级性修辞向美国政府内部的扩散。借助动态主题模型、N元语法对齐和分期格兰杰因果检验，本研究将游说影响操作化为可测量的信息补贴。实证结果揭示出显著制度差异：行政部门不受该游说团体滞后预测性影响的约束，而国会则作为升级性框架的可渗透放大器运作。随着地缘政治条件恶化，该游说团体在立法安全化方面成为统计上稳健的先行指标——即格兰杰意义上的时间优先性。通过提供用于解读危机的预先包装好的军事化词汇，该游说团体在修辞序列中先于立法机构，并有助于塑造一种纵容环境，使总统得以单方面发动2026年2月的地区战争。我们谨慎区分时间优先性与完全结构性因果关系，并讨论同期外生冲击的作用。
关键词
修辞扩散、政策时滞、AIPAC、美伊关系、游说影响、计算文本分析、动态主题模型、格兰杰因果