Original
Facets of Crises: How Problem Indicators and Public Perceptions Affect Policy Change
Abstract
ABSTRACT Crises are widely acknowledged as catalysts for policy change. Yet, our understanding of the policy effects of crises remains limited. Why do only some crises lead to major changes, while significant policy changes also occur during seemingly non‐crisis periods? This paper addresses this gap by distinguishing between two critical “components” of crises: objective problem pressures and public perceptions. We argue that these components often co‐occur but may not always align, leading to differing changes in policy outputs. Using migration policy in Switzerland as a crucial case study, we explore fluctuations in both objective metrics and public sentiment over a period of 25 years (1994 to 2019). Our analysis reveals that substantial policy changes typically occur when both components highlight crisis conditions. However, notable policy change can also be triggered by either high objective pressures or strong public perceptions of crisis. These findings highlight the significance of how scholars define and conceptualize crises, as well as the dimensions—whether objective or perceptual—that they use.
中文
危机的多重面向：问题指标与公众感知如何影响政策变迁
摘要
摘要：危机被广泛认为是政策变迁的催化剂。然而，我们对危机之政策效应的理解仍然有限。为什么只有部分危机会导致重大变迁，而显著的政策变化也会出现在看似非危机的时期？本文通过区分危机的两个关键“组成部分”来填补这一空白：客观问题压力与公众感知。我们认为，这些组成部分往往同时出现，但未必总是一致，从而导致政策产出出现不同变化。以瑞士的移民政策作为关键案例，我们考察了25年间（1994年至2019年）客观指标与公众情绪的波动。分析显示，重大政策变化通常发生在两个组成部分都表明危机状况之时。然而，较高的客观压力或强烈的公众危机感知，也可能单独触发显著的政策变化。这些发现凸显了学者如何界定和概念化危机，以及他们所使用的维度——无论是客观维度还是感知维度——的重要意义。
关键词
危机、政策变迁、问题压力、公众感知、移民政策、瑞士