Original
ICE arrests, 2015–2026: Variation in targeting, method, and geography
Abstract
We analyze and decompose administrative data on all 1.6 million US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests from October 2015 to March 2026. Our results reveal that the reality of immigration enforcement diverges sharply from the public narrative that ICE arrests are necessary to protect public safety by removing people who commit crimes: Although arrests spiked at the outset of both Trump presidencies, the share of arrested individuals with criminal convictions fell significantly, with especially marked declines in 2025. A shift in ICE tactics partly explains this pattern, but even conditional on tactic, the share with a criminal conviction declined as arrests rose. Moreover, we find substantial geographic heterogeneity in ICE methods, despite nearly universal declines in the criminal conviction rate. Our findings provide important evidence for policymakers, the general public, and researchers studying this period of immigration policy.
中文
ICE逮捕，2015—2026年：目标选择、执法方式与地理差异的变化
摘要
我们分析并分解了2015年10月至2026年3月期间美国移民和海关执法局（ICE）全部160万次逮捕的行政数据。结果显示，移民执法的现实与公众叙事存在显著分歧，即ICE逮捕对于通过驱逐犯罪人员来保护公共安全是必要的：尽管两届特朗普政府上任初期逮捕数量均激增，但被捕者中有刑事定罪的比例显著下降，2025年的降幅尤为明显。ICE策略的转变部分解释了这一模式，但即使在控制策略后，随着逮捕数量上升，有刑事定罪的比例仍下降。此外，尽管刑事定罪率几乎普遍下降，我们发现ICE执法方式存在显著的地理异质性。我们的发现为研究这一移民政策时期的政策制定者、公众和研究者提供了重要证据。
关键词
ICE逮捕、移民执法、驱逐出境、刑事定罪、执法地理差异、美国移民政策