Original
Economic Preferences Predict Higher-Education Choices
Abstract
We examine whether individual preferences predict higher-education choices. According to standard human capital theory, differences in individuals' time and risk preferences lead to differences in educational investments. Testing this hypothesis is challenging, as it requires measuring individuals' preferences, doing so before they make educational investments, and subsequently observing their educational choices. We combine incentivized, experimentally elicited measures of time and risk preferences for a large, representative sample of 18- to 19-y-old Danes with administrative data on subsequent higher-education choices, program-specific earnings trajectories, prior school performance, and family background. In line with theory, we find that more patient individuals choose longer education programs and programs with steeper early-career earnings profiles, while more risk-averse individuals select programs with lower earnings dispersion and reduced downside risk. These relationships remain strong after controlling for cognitive ability, prior academic performance, and family background. Our findings suggest that preferences have a substantial impact on real-world educational investments and have implications for educational sorting.
中文
经济偏好预测高等教育选择
摘要
我们考察个体偏好是否能够预测高等教育选择。根据标准人力资本理论，个体在时间偏好与风险偏好上的差异会导致教育投资上的差异。检验这一假说颇具挑战，因为它需要测量个体偏好，且测量须在其作出教育投资之前进行，随后再观测其教育选择。我们将对18至19岁丹麦人的大型代表性样本通过激励性实验引出的时间与风险偏好测量，与关于其后续高等教育选择、项目特定收入轨迹、先前学业表现和家庭背景的行政数据相结合。与理论一致，我们发现，更有耐心的个体选择学制更长的教育项目以及早期职业收入曲线更陡峭的项目；而更厌恶风险的个体则选择收入离散度更低、下行风险更小的项目。在控制认知能力、先前学业成绩和家庭背景之后，这些关系依然稳健。我们的发现表明，偏好对现实世界的教育投资具有实质性影响，并对教育排序具有启示意义。
关键词
经济偏好、时间偏好、风险偏好、高等教育选择、人力资本、教育投资、教育排序、丹麦