Original
Did populist governance change corruption risks during crises across European countries?
Abstract
This study examines whether populist governance shaped public procurement corruption risks during COVID-19 across 23 EU Member States. Despite common emergency rules, corruption risks varied markedly. Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis and the Corruption Risk Index, the study finds that populist governance combined with poor integrity norms is sufficient to explain high corruption risk increases. Populist-led governments intensify risks by undermining oversight, exploiting legal loopholes, and legitimizing rule-breaking through anti-elite narratives, particularly where accountability cultures are weak. Anti-corruption strategies must therefore account for crisis conditions and politicized governance, ensuring independent oversight mechanisms remain intact under populist rule.
中文
民粹主义治理是否改变了欧洲各国危机期间的腐败风险？
摘要
本研究考察民粹主义治理是否在COVID-19期间塑造了23个欧盟成员国的公共采购腐败风险。尽管存在共同的紧急规则，腐败风险仍差异显著。研究使用模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA）和腐败风险指数，发现民粹主义治理与薄弱的诚信规范相结合，足以解释腐败风险的高幅度上升。民粹主义领导的政府通过削弱监督、利用法律漏洞，并通过反精英叙事使违规行为合法化，从而加剧风险，在问责文化薄弱之处尤为如此。因此，反腐败战略必须考虑危机状况和政治化治理，确保独立监督机制在民粹主义统治下保持完好。
关键词
民粹主义治理、腐败风险、公共采购、COVID-19、欧盟、模糊集定性比较分析、诚信规范、问责