Original
Do projects learn across space and time? Evidence from the Olympics
Abstract
Do projects learn across space and time? The Olympics, themselves among the largest publicly funded programmes in the world, offer a unique empirical setting. Theoretically, the Games seem ideal for generating ‘positive learning curves’, driving down costs from one iteration to the next. In practice, they do not. Drawing on the concept of ‘myopia of learning’, we argue that spatiotemporality (geographic distance, temporal gaps, and the temporary organizational form of each host committee) combines to block higher-level learning. Our analysis of cost overruns from 1960 to 2024 reveals no sustained improvement over 64 years. Tactical learning abounds, but none aggregates into strategic improvement. We propose four strategies for overcoming the spatiotemporal barrier (incremental, centralizing, decentralizing, and real options), arguing that radical reform is required.
中文
项目能否跨时空学习？——来自奥运会的证据
摘要
项目能否跨空间与时间学习？奥运会作为全球最大的公共资助项目之一，提供了独特的实证情境。从理论上讲，奥运会似乎非常适合产生“正向学习曲线”，使每届赛事的成本较前一届下降。但在实践中，情况并非如此。我们借鉴“学习短视”概念，认为时空性（地理距离、时间间隔以及各主办委员会临时性的组织形式）共同阻碍了更高层次的学习。我们对该赛事1960年至2024年成本超支的分析显示，64年间没有持续改善。战术性学习广泛存在，但未能汇聚为战略性改进。我们提出四种克服时空障碍的策略（渐进式、集中化、分散化和实物期权），并认为需要进行根本性改革。
关键词
项目学习、跨时空学习、奥运会、成本超支、学习短视、大型项目、公共项目、组织学习