Original
Under Pressure: Analyzing LEO Turnover in America's Swing and Pivot Counties for 2016, 2020, 2024
Abstract
ABSTRACT Post‐2024, the United States faces an acute labor crisis marked by accelerating Local Election Official (LEO) attrition. This study examines causal drivers of this exodus, focusing specifically on disproportionate turnover within volatile “swing” and “pivot” counties. Utilizing a mixed‐methods design, using longitudinal data from the Bipartisan Policy Center, US Census Bureau, Elections Voter Survey, MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL), and the Reed LEO survey, alongside an original dataset compiled from 74 competitive counties and 25 “super landslide” counties. Using Geographic Information Systems, we connect a detailed county profile to spatial mapping of the legal and political environment across the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections. LEOs in highly competitive jurisdictions face an erosion of institutional trust, serving as a primary catalyst for departure. These volatile jurisdictions highlight where democratic machinery is vulnerable, offering evidence‐based insights for state‐level policy interventions designed to stabilize the public administrative workforce amidst unprecedented hyperpolarization.
中文
压力之下：分析2016年、2020年和2024年美国摇摆县与转向县的地方选举官员更替
摘要
2024年后，美国面临一场严峻的劳动力危机，其标志是地方选举官员（LEO）流失加速。本研究考察这一离职潮的因果驱动因素，特别关注动荡的“摇摆”县和“转向”县中不成比例的人员更替。研究采用混合方法设计，使用来自两党政策中心、美国人口普查局、选举选民调查、麻省理工学院选举数据与科学实验室（MEDSL）以及里德LEO调查的纵向数据，并结合由74个竞争性县和25个“超级压倒性”县汇编而成的原创数据集。我们运用地理信息系统，将详细的县级概况与2016年、2020年和2024年选举期间法律和政治环境的空间制图联系起来。高度竞争性辖区的地方选举官员面临制度信任的侵蚀，这成为其离职的主要催化剂。这些动荡辖区凸显了民主机制脆弱之处，并为旨在稳定公共行政劳动力、应对前所未有的高度极化状态的州级政策干预提供了循证洞见。
关键词
地方选举官员、人员更替、摇摆县、转向县、选举管理、制度信任、政治极化、公共行政劳动力