Original
A Race to the Top: The Adoption of Net‐Zero City Pledges in Large US Cities
Abstract
ABSTRACT Many cities have adopted net‐zero emission pledges, yet little is known about why these commitments emerge or how their determinants shift under changing policy environments. Using a panel of 148 large US cities from 2016 to 2022, this study applies the Political Market Framework and employs discrete‐time event‐history models to examine how policy demand, policy supply and institutional conditions shape adoption decisions. Results show that civic capacity, political ideology, and horizontal diffusion drive adoption in the full period, but their influence varies sharply across institutional contexts. During federal disengagement (2016–2018), cities with less population, strong vulnerability signals, supportive state policies, or fiscal cushioning through federal aid are more likely to adopt. When federal engagement returned (2019–2022), education, population size, and neighbor adoption emerged as significant correlates of net‐zero adoption. These findings extend the Political Market Framework by showing how federal contexts condition the adoption of ambitious climate commitments.
中文
逐顶竞争：美国大城市净零城市承诺的采纳
摘要
摘要：许多城市已采纳净零排放承诺，但人们对这些承诺为何出现，以及其决定因素在政策环境变化下如何转变，仍知之甚少。本研究使用2016年至2022年间148个美国大城市构成的面板数据，运用政治市场框架，并采用离散时间事件史模型，考察政策需求、政策供给与制度条件如何塑造采纳决策。结果表明，在整个时期，公民能力、政治意识形态和水平扩散推动采纳，但其影响在不同制度情境下差异显著。在联邦层面退出（2016—2018年）期间，人口较少、脆弱性信号较强、州政策支持或通过联邦援助获得财政缓冲的城市更可能采纳。当联邦层面重新参与（2019—2022年）时，教育、人口规模和邻域采纳成为净零承诺采纳的重要相关因素。这些发现通过表明联邦情境如何制约雄心勃勃的气候承诺的采纳，拓展了政治市场框架。
关键词
净零排放承诺、城市气候政策、政策采纳、政治市场框架、事件史模型、政策扩散、联邦制、美国大城市