Original
Institutional Conversion and Digital Transformation in Local Governments: A Longitudinal Analysis of Trajectories
Abstract
Abstract This article asks a central question in digital government research: why do local governments operating under similar institutional conditions follow sharply different digital transformation trajectories over time? Drawing on theories of gradual institutional change, the study conceptualizes digital transformation not as a discrete adoption outcome, but as a process of institutional conversion through which technological capacity is translated into sustained digital service provision. Information governance is theorized as the key conditioning mechanism linking technological resources to durable organizational outcomes. The analysis combines longitudinal panel models, fixed-effects estimators, and trajectory-based clustering using a panel of all Brazilian municipalities (MUNIC/IBGE; N = 5,569) across seven waves between 2004 and 2024. Results show that increases in technological capacity are associated with subsequent gains in digital services, but these effects are gradual and conditional. Information governance significantly shapes how municipalities mobilize and stabilize technological resources over time, while interaction models reveal non-linear and diminishing returns consistent with institutional coordination limits. Trajectory analyses identify four distinct patterns of digital transformation, ranging from ‘institutionalized pioneers’ to ‘persistent stagnation’, demonstrating that digital development unfolds through path-dependent and institutionally anchored trajectories rather than through simple convergence. The article contributes to public administration research in three ways: provides rare longitudinal evidence on local digital transformation over two decades; integrates institutional change theory into digital government research by conceptualizing governance as a mechanism of institutional conversion; and advances a trajectory-based explanation of digital transformation that shifts attention from episodic technological adoption to cumulative institutional processes shaping long-run administrative performance.
中文
地方政府中的制度转换与数字化转型：轨迹的纵向分析
摘要
本文提出数字政府研究中的一个核心问题：为何在相似制度条件下运行的地方政府，会随时间推移走上截然不同的数字化转型轨迹？借鉴渐进制度变迁理论，本研究将数字化转型概念化为一个制度转换过程，而非离散的采纳结果；通过这一过程，技术能力被转化为持续的数字服务供给。信息治理被理论化为连接技术资源与持久组织结果的关键调节机制。分析结合纵向面板模型、固定效应估计与基于轨迹的聚类方法，使用2004年至2024年间七轮涵盖巴西所有市镇（MUNIC/IBGE；N=5,569）的面板数据。结果显示，技术能力的提升与随后数字服务增益相关，但这些效应是渐进且有条件的。信息治理显著塑造市镇如何随时间调动并稳定技术资源，而交互模型揭示出与制度协调限度相一致的非线性及递减回报。轨迹分析识别出四种不同的数字化转型模式，从“制度化先行者”到“持续停滞”，表明数字发展经由路径依赖且以制度为锚的轨迹展开，而非简单趋同。本文以三种方式贡献于公共行政研究：提供关于地方数字化转型二十余年的罕见纵向证据；通过将治理概念化为制度转换机制，把制度变迁理论整合进数字政府研究；并推进一种基于轨迹的数字化转型解释，将关注点从偶发性技术采纳转向塑造长期行政绩效的累积性制度过程。
关键词
数字化转型、制度转换、地方政府、信息治理、巴西、纵向分析、数字政府、轨迹