Bureaucratic turnover under new governments: the moderating effect of bureaucratic and political layering

Original

Bureaucratic turnover under new governments: the moderating effect of bureaucratic and political layering

Bjørn Mo Forum

Abstract

Abstract Politically motivated personnel turnover affects government bureaucracy’s legitimacy and performance. To understand the conditions of meritocracy, the article explores how variability in hierarchy moderates the effect of government transitions on bureaucratic turnover. Event history analysis of the careers of 948 Norwegian senior bureaucrats (1884–2024) reveals that the organizational layers separating bureaucrats from ministers moderate the effect of government change differently depending on the layer’s political or bureaucratic nature. Bureaucrats directly exposed to political appointees experience heightened turnover during government transitions, while the turnover of bureaucrats separated from appointees by an intervening layer of career employees is unaffected by government transitions. Further analysis of different time periods and senior bureaucratic roles shows that layering alone does not fully explain political influence on bureaucratic careers. Positions must be hierarchically exposed (lacking intervening bureaucratic layers), functionally politicized (involved in tasks that are strategically important to political leadership), and subject to administrative politicization (by being under the purview of political appointees) to be vulnerable to politically motivated turnover. The article advances scholarship on the politicization of senior bureaucrats in merit bureaucracies by examining 140 years of politically induced turnover through a theory of how layering moderates political dynamics.