Original
The Virtue of Bias? China’s Stakeholder Mediation in the Iran and North Korea Nuclear Crises
Abstract
Why does China mediate differently across similar security crises? Challenging mediation theory’s neutrality assumption, this article conceptualises ‘stakeholder mediation’ as engagement by third parties whose security, economic, or reputational interests are exposed to a conflict’s outcome. Such mediators hold leverage but risk entrapment and reputational costs. Using a most-similar design, process tracing, diplomat memoirs, declassified documents, and elite interviews, we examine China’s role in the North Korean and Iranian nuclear crises. Despite structural similarities, China adopted markedly different postures. Variation in stake exposure shapes risk calculations, entry timing, and leverage strategies: high immediate security stakes in Korea raised China’s intervention threshold through entrapment fears, whereas economic and reputational stakes in Iran lowered the risks of early multilateral engagement, while US–China relations operated as a scope condition.
中文
偏袒的美德？中国在伊朗与朝鲜核危机中的利益攸关方调解
摘要
中国为何在相似的安全危机中采取不同的调解方式？本文挑战调解理论的中立性假设，将“利益攸关方调解”概念化为：其安全、经济或声誉利益受冲突结果影响的第三方所进行的介入。此类调解者握有杠杆，但面临被卷入和声誉成本的风险。我们采用最相似设计、过程追踪、外交官回忆录、解密文件和精英访谈，考察中国在朝鲜和伊朗核危机中的角色。尽管存在结构性相似，中国采取了显著不同的姿态。利益敞口的变化塑造了风险计算、介入时机和杠杆策略：在朝鲜，迫在眉睫的高安全利益通过被卷入的担忧提高了中国的干预门槛；而在伊朗，经济与声誉利益降低了早期多边接触的风险；同时，美中关系发挥了范围条件的作用。
关键词
利益攸关方调解、中国调解、朝鲜核危机、伊朗核危机、安全危机、美中关系、调解理论、风险计算