Original
Portraits of Power: Facial Appearance and the Tacit Domain of Political Selection in China
Abstract
As the epitome of modern, rational organizations, bureaucracies are often believed to select candidates based on rules and reason. We argue that intuitive—and even instinctive—assessments of candidates’ external appearances sometimes underpin seemingly rational and calculated decisions. Using a novel, AI-based algorithm that learns and reproduces human assessments of facial appearances at scale, we examine how perceived facial traits influence the careers of over four thousand mid- and senior-level Chinese officials. We find that officials who look more competent, trustworthy, and less aggressive enjoy significantly better promotion prospects and lower purge risk than their peers. Warmth-related traits (e.g., trustworthiness and non-aggressiveness) are especially valued at higher-level promotions and for male candidates. Additional analyses, including conjoint experiments with real officials, demonstrate that appearances’ influence over selection preferences is comparable to performance or political connections. These findings challenge the prevailing meritocratic and relation-based theories of bureaucratic selection and highlight the role of impressions in the workings of government institutions.
中文
权力的肖像：中国政治选拔中的面部外貌与隐性领域
摘要
作为现代理性组织的典范，官僚机构通常被认为基于规则和理性来选拔候选人。我们认为，对候选人外部面貌的直觉性——甚至本能性——评估，有时会支撑看似理性且精于计算的决策。我们使用一种新颖的基于人工智能的算法，该算法能够大规模学习并再现人类对面部外貌的评估，来考察感知到的面部特征如何影响四千多名中国中高层官员的职业生涯。我们发现，看起来更有能力、更值得信赖且更不具攻击性的官员，其晋升前景显著优于同僚，且被清洗的风险更低。与热情相关的特质（例如值得信赖和不具攻击性）在更高层级的晋升中以及男性候选人身上尤其受到重视。包括与真实官员进行的联合实验在内的额外分析表明，外貌对选拔偏好的影响与绩效或政治关系相当。这些发现挑战了主流的贤能政治和基于关系的官僚选拔理论，并凸显了印象在政府机构运作中的作用。
关键词
面部外貌、政治选拔、中国官员、晋升前景、清洗风险、人工智能、官僚选拔、印象