Original
Rebel Victory and Authoritarian (Dis)Order
Abstract
Many authoritarian regimes originating in violent rebellion are exceptionally durable. Yet others collapse quickly after their birth. We argue that the structure of the founding rebellion explains these divergent trajectories by shaping power-sharing dynamics in the new regime and the nature of conflict recurrence. Regimes founded by unified rebellions (single armed group) usually become highly durable autocracies because their members can credibly share power within the same armed organization. By contrast, regimes founded by fractured rebellions (multiple armed groups) often fail quickly because armed rivals must attempt to share power across their organizations, prompting defections and recurrent rebellions. Empirically, we support these arguments by analyzing originally compiled data on every regime founded by successful rebellion worldwide from 1900 to 2020. Neither alternative rebellion characteristics, like social revolution or leftist ideology, nor country-level factors can explain why rebel regimes follow divergent trajectories.
中文
叛军胜利与威权（失）序
摘要
许多起源于暴力叛乱的威权政权异常持久。然而，另一些则在诞生后迅速崩溃。我们认为，建国叛乱的结构通过塑造新政权中的权力分享动态以及冲突再燃的性质，解释了这些分化轨迹。由统一叛乱（单一武装团体）建立的政权通常成为高度持久的威权政体，因为其成员能够在同一武装组织内可信地分享权力。相反，由分裂叛乱（多个武装团体）建立的政权往往迅速失败，因为武装对手必须尝试跨组织分享权力，从而引发叛逃和反复叛乱。在实证上，我们通过分析新编制的1900年至2020年全球所有由成功叛乱建立的政权的数据，支持了这些论点。无论是社会革命或左翼意识形态等其他叛乱特征，还是国家层面因素，都无法解释叛军政权为何遵循分化轨迹。
关键词
威权政体、叛乱、政权持久性、权力分享、冲突再燃、武装团体、内战、比较政治