Original
Legislative Effectiveness, Progressive Ambition, and Electoral Success
Abstract
Are effective state lawmakers more likely than ineffective ones to be elected to Congress? We draw on a new dataset of state legislative effectiveness scores from 1993 to 2018 to examine the relationship between lawmaker effectiveness and the decision to run for, and ultimately be elected to, the U.S. House of Representatives. We find that more effective state lawmakers are more likely to enter Congress than ineffective lawmakers. This pattern is due more to the progressive ambition of candidates than to voter decisions. Specifically, within citizen state legislatures, more effective lawmakers are much more likely to run for U.S. House seats than are their less effective counterparts. In highly professional state legislatures, however, more effective lawmakers are more likely to run for Congress only when presented with the opportunity of an open seat. Our analysis finds no relationship between a state legislator’s lawmaking effectiveness and their likelihood of winning primary or general House elections.
中文
立法效能、递进式政治抱负与选举成功
摘要
高效的州议员是否比低效的州议员更有可能当选进入国会？我们利用一套新的、涵盖1993年至2018年的州议会立法效能评分数据集，考察议员效能与其决定竞选、并最终当选美国众议院议员之间的关系。我们发现，效能更高的州议员比效能较低的议员更有可能进入国会。这一模式更多源于候选人的递进式政治抱负，而非选民的决定。具体而言，在公民型州议会中，效能更高的议员比效能较低的同行更有可能竞选美国众议院席位。然而，在高度职业化的州议会中，效能更高的议员只有在出现开放席位机会时，才更有可能竞选国会。我们的分析未发现州议员的立法效能与其赢得初选或众议院普选的可能性之间存在关系。
关键词
立法效能、递进式政治抱负、州议会、国会选举、开放席位、候选人产生、选举成功、美国众议院