Original
Coethnics Covote in Africa: Studying Electoral Cleavages with a Covoting Regression Model
Abstract
Ethnicity is an important cleavage in Africa, yet its influence on voting is contested. Selection biases from restricted choice sets complicate micro-level analyses, while ecological inferences and unobserved confounders hamper meso and macro-level approaches. Our new Covoting Regression (CVR) tackles several of these challenges. It estimates the effect of coethnicity on the probability that pairs of voters covote for the same party while conditioning on other shared characteristics. Thereby, CVR mirrors the micro-foundations of aggregate indicators such as the Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index. We analyze Afrobarometer surveys from 28 countries and estimate that coethnicity increases covoting intentions between respondents by 17 percentage points. Politically relevant groups and covoting for ethnic parties drive this estimate, which is consistent across institutionally diverse countries and at least four times larger than that of other cleavages. The CVR addresses key issues in studying electoral consequences of socio-economic cleavages and bridges gaps between levels of analysis.
中文
非洲同族裔者共同投票：以共同投票回归模型研究选举分野
摘要
族群性是非洲的一项重要政治分野，但其对投票的影响仍存争议。受限于选择集所导致的选择偏误使微观层面分析复杂化，而生态推断与不可观测混杂因素则阻碍了中观和宏观层面的研究。我们新提出的共同投票回归（CVR）模型应对了其中若干挑战。该模型在控制其他共同特征的前提下，估计同族裔身份对成对选民将票投给同一政党的概率（即共同投票）的影响。由此，CVR 与赫芬达尔—赫希曼集中度指数等聚合指标的微观基础相呼应。我们分析了28个国家的非洲晴雨表调查数据，估计同族裔身份使受访者之间的共同投票意向提高17个百分点。政治相关群体以及投给族群性政党的共同投票推动了这一估计，该结果在制度多样的国家中保持一致，并且至少是其他分野影响的四倍。CVR 解决了研究社会经济分野的选举后果时的关键问题，并弥合了不同分析层次之间的鸿沟。
关键词
族群性、共同投票、选举分野、非洲、投票行为、共同投票回归模型、非洲晴雨表、比较政治