Original
Exiting Russia
Abstract
As of February 24, 2022, over forty thousand foreign-invested firms operated in Russia, a host state that initiated an interstate war—an exceptional shock in the modern era of economic globalization. Using company registration data, we document that after 18 months of war, 33.3% of foreign-invested firms had changed ownership or become inactive. We conceptualize exit as a politicized transaction in which sellers and buyers face external pressures and bargain over terms. Concerning pressures to sell, those in consumer-oriented industries were more likely to exit. On bargaining, we find Russian state interests consequential: foreign-invested firms already under Russian managerial control were more likely to exit, whereas those in Russian strategic industries were not. Despite extraordinary economic sanctions to isolate Russia, and surging social backlash against doing business in Russia, results imply that multinationals are at best unstable tools of economic statecraft, even in the midst of war.
中文
退出俄罗斯
摘要
截至2022年2月24日，超过四万家外资企业在俄罗斯运营，而这一东道国发动了一场国家间战争——在现代经济全球化时代，这是一次异常冲击。我们利用公司注册数据记录，在战争持续18个月后，33.3%的外资企业已经变更所有权或停止运营。我们将退出概念化为一种政治化交易，在其中卖方和买方面临外部压力并就交易条件进行讨价还价。就出售压力而言，面向消费的行业中的企业更可能退出。就讨价还价而言，我们发现俄罗斯国家利益具有重要影响：已处于俄罗斯管理层控制之下的外资企业更可能退出，而处于俄罗斯战略产业中的企业则并非如此。尽管为孤立俄罗斯实施了非同寻常的经济制裁，且社会对在俄经商的反感情绪高涨，结果表明，即便在战争期间，跨国公司至多也只是经济国策的不稳定工具。
关键词
外资企业退出、俄罗斯、经济制裁、经济国策、跨国公司、政治化交易、公司注册数据