Original
Reassessing Gendered Reactions to Terrorist Attacks: Slumps or Bumps?
Abstract
In a recent article published in this journal, Holman, Merolla, and Zechmeister (2022; 2024) report a decrease in support for U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May following the 2017 Manchester bombing, using data from the British Election Studies. Our analysis, however, reveals that once a linear time trend is considered, the bombing does not significantly affect public reactions. We replicate their study with Gallup World Poll data and likewise find no decline in May’s approval rating. Extending the analysis, we examine major terrorist attacks in African countries led by men and similarly find no rally effect. Together, these results cast doubt on terrorism’s capacity to trigger rally ’round the flag dynamics and challenge claims of a gendered pattern whereby women leaders face unique penalties in crises. We argue that broader comparative evidence is necessary before concluding whether citizens rally around, or retreat from, leaders in the wake of terrorism.
中文
重估对恐怖袭击的性别化反应：是支持率下滑还是上扬？
摘要
在本刊最近发表的一篇文章中，Holman、Merolla 和 Zechmeister（2022；2024）利用英国选举研究数据报告称，2017年曼彻斯特爆炸案后，对英国首相特蕾莎·梅的支持率下降。然而，我们的分析表明，一旦考虑线性时间趋势，该爆炸案并未显著影响公众反应。我们用盖洛普世界民意调查数据复现了他们的研究，同样未发现梅的批准率下降。作为分析拓展，我们考察了非洲国家由男性领导人执政期间发生的重大恐怖袭击，同样未发现聚旗效应。综上，这些结果令人怀疑恐怖主义能否引发“聚旗效应”动态，并对所谓性别化模式——即女性领导人在危机中面临独特惩罚——提出挑战。我们认为，在断定公民在恐怖主义发生后是团结在领导人周围还是背离领导人之前，需要更广泛的比较证据。
关键词
恐怖袭击、聚旗效应、性别、公众舆论、领导人支持率、比较政治