Original
The Cornered Mouse: Sanctioned Elites and Authoritarian Realignment in the Japanese Legislature, 1936–1942
Abstract
This study examines how economic elites respond to the erosion of democratic checks and balances, focusing on the Japanese legislature from 1936 to 1942. Using an original dataset of Diet members’ biographies and board memberships, it analyzes the Imperial Japanese Army’s consolidation of power and shifts in parliamentary voting patterns amid the suppression of dissent. Employing difference-in-differences and event-study designs, this study evaluates the effects of two key shocks: economic sanctions and wartime procurement. Legislators tied to sanction-hit sectors—such as textiles and petrochemicals, the weakest performers in the stock market—shifted toward authoritarian alignment. Biographical and legislative records suggest this shift was facilitated by regime-backed campaign finance. In contrast, legislators from procurement-dependent sectors, such as automobiles, maintained stable voting behavior. The findings complicate the conventional view that sanctions prompt elites to advocate international policy change. Instead, they show that sanctions can drive vulnerable actors to submit domestically, thereby accelerating authoritarian consolidation.
中文
被逼入绝境的老鼠：受制裁精英与日本立法机构中的威权主义重组，1936—1942年
摘要
本研究考察经济精英如何回应民主制衡的侵蚀，聚焦1936年至1942年的日本立法机构。利用关于国会议员传记和董事会任职的原创数据集，本文分析日本帝国陆军巩固权力以及异议受压期间议会投票模式的变化。通过双重差分和事件研究设计，本研究评估两个关键冲击的影响：经济制裁与战时采购。与受制裁冲击的行业——如纺织业和石化业，这些行业在股市中表现最差——相关联的议员转向威权主义阵营。传记与立法记录表明，这一转向受到政权支持的竞选资金推动。相比之下，来自依赖政府采购的行业（如汽车业）的议员维持了稳定的投票行为。这些发现挑战了关于制裁促使精英倡导国际政策变化的传统观点。相反，它们表明制裁可能推动脆弱行为体在国内服从，从而加速威权巩固。
关键词
经济制裁、威权巩固、日本帝国议会、政治精英、竞选资金、战时采购、议会投票、双重差分