Original
A theory of political divergence and gradual institutional change
Abstract
Abstract Why do some societies succeed in breaking away from historical traditions while others remain trapped? This paper proposes a formal theory to investigate the interaction between short‐run and long‐run political dynamics, highlighting a co‐evolution of political institutions and social structures. A society consists of various social groups, such as the rulers, the elites, and the commoners. Short‐run strategic considerations give rise to different coalitions among these groups, which determine not only political regimes but also redistribution policies. In the long run, these policies shape the accumulation of wealth and power, where small initial differences can lead to divergent paths of development. Finally, the paper examines three historical case studies on medieval Europe, imperial China, and the medieval Muslim world to illustrate potential pathways of long‐run political development.
中文
政治分化与渐进制度变迁的理论
摘要
为什么一些社会能够成功摆脱历史传统，而另一些社会则深陷其中？本文提出一个正式理论，考察短期与长期政治动态之间的互动，强调政治制度与社会结构的共同演化。一个社会由各种社会群体构成，如统治者、精英和平民。短期战略考量催生这些群体之间的不同联盟，这些联盟不仅决定政治政体，也决定再分配政策。从长期来看，这些政策塑造财富与权力的积累，其中初始的微小差异可能导致发展路径的分化。最后，本文考察了中世纪欧洲、帝制中国和中世纪穆斯林世界三个历史案例，以阐明长期政治发展的潜在路径。
关键词
政治分化、渐进制度变迁、正式理论、社会结构、再分配政策、长期政治发展、历史政治经济学