Original
Unraveling authoritarian reform decision‐making: A metacognitive–subcognitive model
Abstract
Abstract Recent research indicates that state reforms in East and Southeast Asia have been predominantly top‐down and authoritarian‐led. However, this significant observation implicitly relies on important assumptions about authoritarian decision‐making behavior and psychology that remains understudied. Using a dynamical‐systems approach, this paper introduces a “metacognitive–subcognitive” model of cognitive uncertainties to analyze decision‐making in authoritarian‐led reforms. The model predicts that major authoritarian‐led political reform, such as democratization, is most likely to occur if the leader is “wishfully optimistic” enough to view the expected outcomes of the reform, despite the associated risks and pressures. Applying the model to six cases in East and Southeast Asia demonstrates the effectiveness of the model in decoding the state‐led reform decision‐making dynamics of authoritarian regimes. Overall, the paper proposes a new framework and methodology that can both distinguish and relate causal, structural, and contingent factors contributing to authoritarian decision‐making dynamics.
中文
解开威权改革决策之谜：一个元认知—亚认知模型
摘要
近期研究表明，东亚与东南亚的国家改革主要是自上而下、由威权领导者主导的。然而，这一重要观察隐含地依赖于关于威权决策行为与心理的一些重要假设，而这些问题仍缺乏充分研究。本文采用动态系统方法，引入一个关于认知不确定性的“元认知—亚认知”模型，以分析威权主导改革中的决策。该模型预测：如果领导者足够“一厢情愿地乐观”，以致在改革伴随风险与压力的情况下仍看重改革的预期结果，那么重大的威权主导政治改革（如民主化）最有可能发生。将模型应用于东亚和东南亚的六个案例，显示该模型在解读威权政权国家主导改革决策动态方面的有效性。总体而言，本文提出一个新的框架与方法，既能区分又能关联促成威权决策动态的因果性、结构性与情境性因素。
关键词
威权改革、决策、元认知、亚认知、动态系统、民主化、东亚、东南亚