↓ 跳过正文

Polihot

The illegal market for sex in the United States: Insights from economic research

·480 字·1 分钟
Polihot 政治经济学 公共政策 Sex Work Decriminalization Illegal Markets Regulation United States
PNAS 123/33 pp. e2512375122-e2512375122 2026-08-10 Original The illegal market for sex in the United States: Insights from economic research Manisha Shah Abstract The illegal market for sex in the United States generates significant economic activity yet remains understudied due to its illegality and clandestine nature. This paper synthesizes existing empirical evidence documenting aspects of market structure, impacts of regulation, and notable changes over time. Criminalization, while intended to suppress the market, often exacerbates harms by displacing activity underground, increasing violence against sex workers, and elevating disease transmission risks. Natural experiments, including decriminalization episodes in Rhode Island and policy shifts in Europe, reveal that decriminalization can reduce sexually transmitted infections and violence against women. Additionally, technological shifts-particularly the rise of online platforms due to the internet-have reshaped market organization. These findings challenge conventional legal and moral frameworks and underscore the need for evidence-based policymaking to guide effective regulation of sex markets.

Stability and turbulence in illegal drug markets

·736 字·2 分钟
Polihot 政治经济学 公共政策 Illegal Drug Markets Drug Trafficking Fentanyl Cryptocurrency Supply Chain
PNAS 123/33 pp. e2512078123-e2512078123 2026-08-10 Original Stability and turbulence in illegal drug markets Beau Kilmer Abstract This article provides a primer on illegal drug markets, with a focus on the structure and nature of these markets and the enterprises involved. The markets for illegal drugs are large, with annual retail expenditures likely exceeding $100 billion in the United States alone. Many drugs are easy to produce, and their high value-to-weight ratios make them attractive to smugglers. Some features of illegal drug markets have been quite stable, such as the small size of retail purchases, in part because most sales are to people who use frequently and typically do not buy in bulk. Between production and consumption, most of these substances cross multiple borders-and often continents-and the mark-ups along the supply chain continue to be substantial. But there have been major changes over the past 15 y. While illegally manufactured synthetic drugs are not new, the proliferation of fentanyl and other synthetic opioids created an overdose crisis in North America and has other countries on high alert. The internet has also made producing and accessing a wide range of drugs and their precursor chemicals easier. The emergence of cryptocurrencies has created new opportunities to hide transactions and launder the proceeds. In addition to highlighting the stability and turbulence in these markets, this article offers ideas for future research and emphasizes the need for monitoring purity-adjusted drug prices, which is critical for understanding supply changes and evaluating interventions in these markets.

Endogenous coalition formation in policy debates

·531 字·2 分钟
Polihot 公共政策 Coalition Formation Policy Debates Policy Learning Belief Adoption Social Networks
AJPS — 2026-08-10 Original Endogenous coalition formation in policy debates Philip Leifeld, Laurence Brandenberger Abstract Abstract Political actors form coalitions around their joint normative beliefs in order to influence the policy process on contentious issues such as climate change or population aging. Policy process theory maintains that learning within and across coalitions is a central predictor of policy change but has yet to explain how policy learning works. This article explains the formation and maintenance of coalitions by focusing on the ways actors adopt policy beliefs from other actors in policy debates. A policy debate is a complex social system in which temporal network dependence guides how actors contribute ideological statements. Belief adoption matters in three complementary ways: bonding , which exploits cues within coalitions; bridging , which explores new beliefs outside one's perimeter; and repulsion , which reinforces polarization between coalitions and cements their belief systems. We formalize this theory of endogenous coalition formation in policy debates and test it on a micro‐level empirical data set.

Durable majority gerrymanders: Where partisan gerrymandering can displace democracy

·586 字·2 分钟
Polihot 美国政治 研究方法 Gerrymandering Redistricting State Legislatures Democracy Electoral Geography
AJPS — 2026-08-10 Original Durable majority gerrymanders: Where partisan gerrymandering can displace democracy Maxwell Palmer, Benjamin Schneer Abstract Abstract We develop the concept of, and estimation tools for, durable majority gerrymanders : electoral district maps drawn to reduce an opposing political party's probability of winning a majority in a legislative chamber. Directly interpretable, forward‐looking, and motivated by the democratic principle that a party in power should have some chance of losing it, this measure provides new insights into the role of redistricting in state legislative elections. We show that, when map drawers are unconstrained, the ability to create durable majorities is so widespread that at least one party in every state can draw a map where a majority of legislative districts withstand almost any likely future electoral swing. Enacted maps are less durable due to a combination of underlying geography, voter partisanship, and state‐level guidelines. This paper provides the theoretical framework and empirical tools to understand which gerrymandered maps enable state‐level majorities to emerge and to endure.

Americans favor predistributive over redistributive economic policies

·825 字·2 分钟
Polihot 政治行为 公共政策 Predistribution Redistribution Economic Inequality Public Opinion Survey Experiment
PNAS 123/33 pp. e2617191123-e2617191123 2026-08-10 Original Americans favor predistributive over redistributive economic policies David Broska, Jonne Kamphorst, Robb Willer Abstract Redistributive policies designed to reduce economic inequality through taxes and transfers (e.g., safety-net benefits funded by progressive taxation) receive less support in the United States than in many Western democracies. Recent work suggests Americans may be more receptive to "predistributive" policies, which seek to reduce economic inequality before taxes and transfers (e.g., minimum-wage increases). Yet existing evidence leaves open whether this support gap characterizes contemporary Americans overall, and whether it persists when the same policy proposals are described in predistributive vs. redistributive terms, with their core provisions held constant. Across 31 national U.S. survey waves from 2015 to 2024 (total [Formula: see text]), we find greater support for policies classified as predistributive than redistributive. We then fielded a preregistered experiment with a national U.S. sample ([Formula: see text]), randomly varying whether otherwise identical policy proposals were described as increasing earnings for people lower in the income distribution, shifting resources from higher- to lower-income individuals, or presented only with the policy description given in all conditions. Support was higher under predistributive than redistributive descriptions. Comparison with the control condition clarifies this difference: Predistributive descriptions received support comparable to control, whereas redistributive descriptions received lower support. Exploratory analyses suggest perceived respect for hard work and beneficiary deservingness were associated with the support gap. Together, these results suggest Americans prefer policies that reduce inequality by influencing earnings more than through taxes and transfers.